Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Second-Level Thinking

James Holzhauer's epic run on Jeopardy came to an end.


While the human drama around that is entertaining, one of the best pieces of analysis was this write up "Did James make the right Final Jeopardy bet?" on one of my favorite websites.

At one level, his explanation made perfect sense, and did play out in the way the leader (Emma) bet.

But here's the "she knows what he knows what she know's" second-ordered thought (what the author calls the "mindfuck" strategy).

But Emma could have figured out his thinking, and bet a smaller amount, ensuring she won regardless of whether she got the question right or wrong (essentially sealing her victory).

Of course, one could take this type of reasoning one or more levels higher.

No comments: